Briefs

Rick Whiting , 31-May-2006, CMPnetAsia

Real-time information is no longer fast enough for some companies. The trend is applying predictive analysis to everything from patient care to crime-fighting.

What's next is the ability to forecast where events are heading, then make informed decisions based on that assessment. Predictive analytics, the scientific name for using a data warehouse as a crystal ball, is where business intelligence is going. It involves running historical data through mathematical algorithms--neural networks, decision trees, Bayesian networks--to identify trends and patterns and predict future outcomes. Will product demand surge? Will a patient relapse? Will a customer take his business elsewhere? Our ability to make such educated guesses is key to improving service, cutting costs, and exploiting new market opportunities

What's different now is that vendors are building predictive analytics into mainstream applications for everyday decision making by all types of employees. IDC expects sales of predictive analytics software to grow 8 percent annually, to US$3 billion by 2008.

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In Richmond, Va., police use predictive analysis to determine the probability that a particular type of crime--armed robbery, auto theft, murder--will occur in a specific area at a given time. Police lieutenants who command the city's 12 sectors use desktop computers linked to the system to decide where to deploy a mobile task force of 30 officers. "Based on the predictive models, we deploy them almost every three or four hours," Police Chief Rodney Monroe says.

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