Estimating Campaign Benefits and Modeling Lift

Table of Contents

Estimating Campaign Benefits and Modeling Lift

Outline

Direct Marketing Paradigm

Initial Benefit Assessment

Profit of Selecting All

Selecting from a Random List

Selecting from Random and Model-sorted Lists

Model Lift

Is Selecting First P of Model ListProfitable ?

Initial Feasibility Assessment

Can Expected Lift be estimated ?

Empirical Observations about Lift

Meta Analysis of Lift Curves

Results: Lift vs 1/T

Actual Lift(T) vs sqrt(1/T) for All Problems

GPS Lift(T) Rule of Thumb

Next: Estimating Entire Lift Curve

Modeling CumPHits Curve

Regression Coefficients vs T

Modeling CumPHits vs T

Simple Bounds on Lift Curve

Ranges for the Lift Curvefor KDD-CUP-97 BNB data

Estimating Profit

Estimating Max Profit

Actual and Estimated Profit Curves

Data Mining Sweet Spot

Limitations and Questions

Email: gregory at kdnuggets dot com

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